Almost seven out of every ten eligible Nanaimo voters did not cast a ballot. The remaining voters chose the mayor and council who will make decisions affecting everyone’s taxes, services and neighbourhoods for the next four years.
Preliminary figures for the October 17, 2026 municipal election show 25,450 ballots cast and approximately 31.63% turnout. That means 68.37% of eligible voters did not participate.
Turnout improved from 2022. That is welcome. But fewer than one-third of eligible voters still determined the outcome.
How Much of the Electorate Chose Each Winner?
The reported turnout and ballot count imply approximately 80,462 eligible voters. Using that estimated total, here is the share of the eligible electorate that voted for each successful candidate.
| Successful candidate | Votes | Share of eligible voters |
|---|---|---|
| Mayor: Leonard Krog | 10,368 | 12.89% |
| Ben Geselbracht | 12,399 | 15.41% |
| Paul Manly | 12,052 | 14.98% |
| Hilary Eastmure | 10,660 | 13.25% |
| Sheryl Armstrong | 9,368 | 11.64% |
| Andréa Coutu | 8,160 | 10.14% |
| Erin Colleen Hemmens | 8,090 | 10.05% |
| Marnie Boers | 7,873 | 9.78% |
| Ian Thorpe | 7,654 | 9.51% |
Calculation: candidate votes divided by approximately 80,462 eligible voters, multiplied by 100. Percentages are estimates because the reported turnout is rounded. Results remain preliminary.
In this election, support from roughly one in ten eligible voters was enough to secure a council seat. Even the leading council candidate received votes from only about 15% of the eligible electorate.
These are individual candidate figures. Voters could choose up to eight councillors, so the percentages overlap and cannot be added together to measure support for council as a whole. Nor is 10% a fixed threshold: the votes needed to win depend on turnout and how voters distribute their choices.
Krog Wins With 41% of the Mayoral Vote
Leonard Krog received 10,368 votes, winning a third term. Of the valid votes cast for mayor, approximately 41% went to Krog and 59% went to someone else.
He won the largest individual share, but not a majority. The other votes were divided among three challengers.
His support has also declined across successive elections:
| Election | Krog’s votes | Share of valid mayoral votes | Share of eligible voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20,040 | 73.66% | 28.99% |
| 2022 | 12,390 | 68.41% | 16.05% |
| 2026 — preliminary | 10,368 | 41.08% | 12.89% |
Krog received 2,022 fewer votes than in 2022, despite an additional 6,786 ballots being cast overall. His vote total is now approximately 48% below his 2018 result.
Better Turnout, but a Large Participation Gap
Using the City’s final figures for previous elections, turnout was approximately 39.74% in 2018 and 24.17% in 2022. The reported 31.63% in 2026 represents a recovery, but remains below 2018.
Approximately 55,000 eligible voters did not cast a ballot this time. We cannot assume they were satisfied, dissatisfied or indifferent. The results do not tell us why they stayed away.
Commentary: The participation gap should concern both elected officials and taxpayers. The winning candidates have earned their positions under the election rules. But winning office is not a blank cheque, and these numbers should encourage humility about claims of a sweeping public mandate.
Why do so many residents see little reason to participate? Are people disconnected from City Hall, discouraged by their choices, facing barriers to voting, or unconvinced their vote matters? What will the City do to understand the reasons?
Those questions deserve attention between elections, when budgets are debated, borrowing is proposed and service priorities are set.
The new council must serve the entire community, including people who voted for other candidates and those who did not vote. Residents, in turn, still have opportunities to attend meetings, question spending and demand clear explanations.
About 32% cast the ballots. Everyone will live with the decisions. Public participation cannot end on election night.
Sources and calculation notes: City of Nanaimo preliminary 2026 candidate results; official 2022 election results; official 2018 mayoral results. The 2026 calculations use the reported 25,450 ballots and 31.63% turnout; the final eligible-voter count should be checked against the official declaration. Mayoral vote shares exclude blank or invalid mayoral selections.
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