VIU tells council “we’re making progress.” The numbers say: the runway is still shrinking.
When Vancouver Island University shows up at City of Nanaimo council to talk finances, it’s not just a campus update — it’s a community warning light.
On February 2, interim president Dennis Johnson told council VIU is trying to balance its books. Nanaimo News Bulletin reports a 2025/26 Q3 forecast of about a $5.8M surplus by March 31, while also projecting another $48M in deficits over the next three years. That same report says VIU has reduced its workforce by about 200 since 2023 and expects international enrolment to keep dropping for another year.
A surplus beside a three-year deficit forecast isn’t “financial stability.” It’s closer to: we’ve stopped the bleeding — but we haven’t solved the underlying problem.
The underlying problem is dependency on a revenue stream VIU doesn’t control
VIU’s audited financial statements (year ended March 31, 2025) show how meaningful tuition revenue is — and how big the international slice has been: $39.16M domestic tuition/fees vs $24.77M international tuition/fees in 2024/25.
Then comes the blunt part: the auditor highlights a “Material Uncertainty Related to Going Concern.” And VIU’s own note ties the risk directly to federal policy changes, stating international tuition revenue fell (it cites $26.9M to $23.5M year-over-year) and says “These conditions cast a significant doubt on the ability of the University to operate as a going concern.”
That’s not rhetoric. That’s the institution’s audited disclosure.
“It might rebound next year” is not a plan
VIU is right that international student “levers” are in Ottawa’s hands. But that’s precisely why Nanaimo should be skeptical of any strategy that quietly assumes a quick return to past enrolment levels.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has published provincial allocations under the international student cap for 2026 — British Columbia’s target for PAL/TAL-required cohorts is 24,786. That’s the policy environment VIU is operating in right now, not a hypothetical future. (Canada)
“Workforce alignment” can’t be a slogan — it has to be a scoreboard
Johnson told council VIU is examining “stronger alignment to the workforce,” and he referenced program reductions as part of the turnaround. (Nanaimo News Bulletin)
Fine — but alignment needs measurable proof, not comforting phrasing. If VIU is re-shaping programs while students and families are paying real money (and the community is relying on real outcomes), then the public deserves clarity:
Which programs are being expanded because local employers need them — and which are being cut because they don’t lead to jobs?
What is VIU’s “teach-out” promise for students already enrolled when a program is reduced or closed?
What is the three-year plan that balances the budget without assuming the international tuition era comes roaring back?
Nanaimo council should ask for the next briefing — with numbers
Council shouldn’t just receive updates; it should request a simple, public set of metrics:
A 3-year budget plan based on conservative international enrolment assumptions
Program-by-program outcomes (employment, in-field work, median earnings)
A student protection/teach-out framework for any program closures
A clear definition of VIU’s “core mission” for Vancouver Island — what must be protected, even in austerity
Because the real risk here isn’t only institutional. It’s reputational: if students feel stranded mid-stream, or if “alignment” becomes code for cutting without accountability, VIU loses trust — and Nanaimo loses a pillar.
VIU’s presentation can be read as progress. It should also be read as a warning: the old funding model is wobbling, and hope isn’t a budget strategy.
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