PROMISED vs. DELIVERED – AND WHAT THEY’RE PROMISING NOW!
Nanaimo municipal tax increases 2021–2030
What they promised last time (2021–2025 Plan)
From the 2021–2025 Financial Plan (municipal increase, including 1% asset management):
| Year | “Planned” general | Asset mgmt | Total PROMISED increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | 2.6% | 1.0% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | 2.5% | 1.0% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | 2.2% | 1.0% | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.6% |
Message at the time: “Stable, modest 3%-ish increases, trending down by 2025.”
What actually happened (2021–2025 real tax increases)
Actual municipal tax increases adopted by council:
| Year | PROMISED total | ACTUAL municipal increase | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.0 pts |
| 2022 | 3.6% | 6.0% | +2.4 pts |
| 2023 | 3.5% | 7.2% | +3.7 pts |
| 2024 | 3.2% | 7.7% | +4.5 pts |
| 2025 | 2.6% | 7.8% | +5.2 pts |
The record:
The only year that matched the plan was 2021.
From 2022 on, council delivered almost double the promised increases.
By 2025, taxpayers were hit with an increase over 5 points higher than the original plan for that year.
What they’re “promising” now (2026–2030 Draft Plan)
From the current 2026–2030 draft financial plan (municipal increase):
| Year | General | Asset mgmt | Draft total increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.1% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
| 2027 | 4.1% | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| 2028 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.9% |
| 2029 | 2.7% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2030 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
Election-year optics?
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In the previous 2025–2029 plan, 2026 was listed as 7.7%.
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In the new 2026–2030 plan, 2026 is now 7.1% (slightly softer).
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But 2027 jumps from 3.5% (old plan) to 5.1% (new draft).
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Later years are presented as “comfortable” 2–3% increases.
Fine print that matters
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The City notes that major projects and future wage deals are not fully costed into the later years of the plan.
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That means those nice low 2–3% increases in the late 2020s do not include the full cost of the very projects used to justify all the borrowing.
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Last time they projected gentle 3% increases, taxpayers actually got repeated 6–8% hikes.
Question for readers: “Given this track record, how much confidence should we place in the ‘promised’ numbers to 2030?”
Past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour.
Nanaimo’s 5-year “projections” have consistently under-stated the real tax bite.
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