JUST MORE SMOKE AND MIRRORS FROM OTTAWA

 

What a 10% Cut Really Means — and What It Doesn’t

A quick reality check on Ottawa’s headcount, debt, and interest bill.

The Prime Minister’s pledge to trim the federal workforce by 10% sounds bold. But after a decade of rapid expansion, even a sizable haircut still leaves government bigger than before.

Start with headcount. Treasury Board’s own table shows the federal public service rose from 257,034 positions in 2015 to 357,965 by March 31, 2025 — about a 39% increase. Cutting 10% from today’s levels would land near 322,000, still roughly 25% larger than in 2015. In plain terms: after the cut, Ottawa remains substantially bigger than when this era began.

Now look at the money. In 2014–15, the federal debt (accumulated deficit) was $612.3 billion and annual interest costs were $26.6 billion. In the 2025–26 budget plan, federal debt is projected at $1.347 trillion with interest of $55.6 billion — more than double the stock of debt and roughly double the interest bill. The debt-to-GDP ratio rises from ~31% then to ~42.4% in 2025–26.

Two more comparisons that really matter:

·       “That doesn’t include the provinces.” Combined federal–provincial net debt is estimated near $2.3 trillion in 2024–25 — about 75% of GDP — implying roughly $950 billion at the provincial/territorial level on top of the federal burden.

·       Households are carrying historic leverage too. Statistics Canada reports household credit‑market debt now exceeds $3.1 trillion. Against an economy of roughly $3.13 trillion (Budget 2025’s implied GDP), that’s on the order of one full year of national output.

Bottom line: a 10% trim may tidy the edges, but it doesn’t reverse a decade-long expansion — and it certainly doesn’t solve the arithmetic of bigger debt, higher interest costs, and heavy household leverage. If Ottawa is serious, the real conversation is about doing fewer things better — and living within taxpayers’ means.

Staff: Ottawa’s workforce rose from 257,034 (2015) to 357,965 (2025) (+39%). Even after a 10% cut, you’d still have ~322,169—~25% larger than in 2015.
Budget (Debt): Federal debt climbed from $612.3B (2014–15) to a projected $1.347T (2025–26)—~31% → ~42.4% of GDP.
Deficit: The 2025 plan books a $78.3B deficit (~2.5% of GDP).
Interest: Annual interest (public debt charges) more than doubled: $26.6B (2014–15) → $55.6B (2025–26).