CHINA'S NEW LIMITS COULD IMPACT OUR FERRIES

VOICE OF NANAIMO

We Care — Truth Matters

 China’s New Export Limits — What It Means for BC Ferries

Dated: Sat, Oct 11, 2025 (PT)

Note:this is not a report, nor is it an op-ed rather it is an exercise for Voice of Nanaimo readers who are interested in going beyond the 20 second sound bite or 140 character tweet. It lays out in point form what has just happened with Chinas trade policies which are being described as alarming. Considering that our political 'leaders' think it is prudent to enter into billion dollar deals with China and are comfortable with having the future of our ferry fleet in the hands of the Chinese, well that begs a  lot of questions.

Questions that the mainstream media won't be providing and questions I suspect 99.9% of Canadians  could care less about. I was going to spend hours putting the meat on this story, but will leave the skeleton here for any VON readers who might care about depth.

The short version

·        China has widened export controls on rare-earths, magnet-making inputs/equipment, graphite/battery items, and certain precision tools, framed as “national security.”

·        These are licensing limits—not tariffs. Beijing can slow-walk or deny shipments entirely, creating direct choke points instead of just cost increases.

·        China’s leverage is significant: dominant in rare-earth processing/magnets, graphite anodes, and key upstream stages of solar PV and other critical minerals.

·        U.S. tariff escalation raises logistics, insurance, and compliance costs—compounding risk for projects with China-origin content.

What changed (why this is different from tariffs)

·        Licensing over pricing: permits now required for more materials, equipment, and know‑how; end-use vetting targets defense/semiconductor exposure.

·        Newly touched items include magnet manufacturing inputs and some industrial diamond tools used in ultra‑fine machining.

Where China holds the cards (selected numbers)

·        Rare earths: dominant share in processing and permanent‑magnet value chain.

·        Graphite (EV anodes): very high share of global refining capacity.

·        Critical minerals overall: outsized refining share across most key inputs.

·        Solar PV: overwhelming share across multiple manufacturing stages.

Why BC Ferries (and BC taxpayers) should care

·        BC Ferries has contracted a Chinese state yard to build four diesel‑battery hybrid vessels. If key parts fall under new controls, schedules and after‑sales support could be disrupted.

·        Components at risk include permanent‑magnet motors, certain power electronics, and precision tooling—items more likely to face licensing delays.

·        Political scrutiny and tariff tit‑for‑tat could add further delays, compliance burdens, or routing complications.

Immediate questions for BC Ferries / Province

1.        Propulsion choice: Are these hybrids using permanent‑magnet motors (rare‑earth heavy) or induction motors (rare‑earth free)? If PM, what is magnet origin and spares plan?

2.        Controlled inputs: Which China‑origin parts or tooling fall under the new license regime, and how are lead‑time risks modeled in schedule buffers?

3.        Contract protections: Do terms include export‑control delay clauses, liquidated damages, and approved substitutions if a controlled item can’t be licensed on time?

4.        Spares front‑loading: Will BC Ferries pre‑buy critical spares (magnets, specialized bearings, power electronics) and hold safety stock in BC?

Practical risk‑reduction moves (now)

·        Design to de‑risk: prefer non‑rare‑earth alternatives (e.g., induction motors) and avoid newly controlled parts where feasible.

·        Dual‑source: map alternates for magnets/graphite outside China; develop supplier back‑ups and qualification plans.

·        Compliance runway: build licensing lead‑time into the Gantt; align delivery windows before tighter measures bite.

What to watch next (near‑term)

·        U.S. tariff escalation windows and any reciprocal Chinese measures that broaden licensing or add new categories.

·        Any BC Ferries disclosures on propulsion choices, controlled inputs, and contingency planning.

 

Sidebar — Questions to Ask Your MLA

• What safeguards ensure BC Ferries’ new vessels aren’t vulnerable to Chinese export licensing delays? • Will the province require non‑rare‑earth propulsion options or diversified sourcing in future procurements? • Are contract clauses strong enough to protect taxpayers if export controls disrupt delivery or spares? • What is the contingency plan if key components can’t be shipped or serviced promptly?